What Happens at WBHockeyTalk, Stays at WBHockeyTalk

So I seen an interesting article showing the Vegas over/under odds for the next NHL season.  They predicted the point totals for all the teams.  I'm not a gambling person (because I'm awful at it), but its interesting to see predictions like this.

I made my own predictions a few months ago, if one would like to compare, go here. But for your convenience, I'll put my rank of the teams in parenthesis in these rankings.

Without further ado: (from CBSSports.com)

Metropolitan Division

Pittsburgh Penguins -- 108.5(1)

New York Rangers -- 98.5(3)

Washington Capitals -- 93.5(8)

Philadelphia Flyers -- 92.5(2)

New York Islanders -- 89.5(4)

Columbus Blue Jackets -- 85.5(7)

Carolina Hurricanes -- 84.5(6)

New Jersey Devils -- 79.5(5)

Really? Carolina AND Columbus ahead of New Jersey? I think New Jersey deserves much more credit than last here. Columbus is banking on a repeat performance from their young starter in Bobrovski. If Brodeur can't live up to expectations in New Jersey, Schneider surely will. Neither have a great team ahead of them, but NJ shouldn't be in the basement.  Also, I guess Washington warrants more love than I gave them. I want Ovie to succeed, but in this division he's going to have a difficult time getting open compared to when he regularly played against Florida, Tampa, and Winnipeg. Maybe I'm wrong though.

Atlantic Division

Boston Bruins -- 102.5(4)

Detroit Red Wings -- 97.5(1)

Toronto Maple Leafs -- 96.5(2)

Montreal Canadiens -- 94.5(3)

Ottawa Senators -- 93.5(5)

Tampa Bay Lightning -- 88.5(7)

Buffalo Sabres -- 83.5(6)

Florida Panthers -- 75.5(8)

Fairly close to mine, I'll take it.  I gave Boston less of a chance because they lost some key pieces this off-season.  But I think any team 1-4 has a good shot of winning the division this year.  This will easily be the most exciting division in hockey.  I think everyone can agree that Florida is the worst team in the division, Tampa Bay and Buffalo will struggle, and Ottawa will be one of the dark horse teams that could very well sneak into the playoffs.

Central Division

Chicago Blackhawks -- 105.5(1)

St. Louis Blues -- 99.5(2)

Minnesota Wild -- 94.5(4)

Colorado Avalanche -- 86.5(3)

Dallas Stars -- 86.5(5)

Nashville Predators -- 84.5(6)

Winnipeg Jets -- 82.5(7)

Besides switching Colorado and Minnesota, I pretty much called this division 100%, according to Vegas. Chicago should easily win the division, but it will be interesting to see how the rest of the division shapes up, because each team in here besides Chicago and Winnipeg are filled with question marks that will determine their season. This division could be flipped upside down by the end of the year.  I still think Winnipeg is missing a few parts to be a contender though.

Pacific Division

Los Angeles Kings -- 98.5(1)

Vancouver Canucks -- 95.5(2)

San Jose Sharks -- 94.5(3)

Anaheim Ducks -- 90.5(5)

Edmonton Oilers -- 89.5(4)

Phoenix Coyotes -- 85.5(6)

Calgary Flames -- 74.5(7)

Gah, so close again! Vegas switched Anaheim and Edmonton, putting them only 1 point apart. That's a fair assessment, both teams are young with lots of firepower that could have an excellent season or fizzle out if not handled correctly. LA should win the division this year, but Vancouver has a good enough team to keep close. Unfortunately, Flames fans are once again given the bad news for next year by being predicted to have the lowest point total in the league.  Embarrassing, but probably accurate. 

European Expansion?

So, there was a spark from Bill Daly in a Vancouver press conference when he suggested that European expansion of the NHL is a possibility.

From the NHL brass, who never like to speculate on anything, thats huge.

The logistics are the biggest pain to hammer out, but I think it's certainly a serious thought by the NHL, and it has nothing to do with their own league.  The KHL, Russia's pro league, is growing west, and accepting teams from Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, Croatia, etc.  That's nice for them.  But next season, they'll get a Finnish team, and one of the more popular teams in Finland, if not Europe.  This alarms the NHL.  If the KHL can take away the players from the bigger European markets like Finland, Sweden, Czech Republic and Slovakia, the NHL is in trouble.

The quality of the game will suffer, as many of today's stars are in fact European.  The talent pool will be diminished, and the on-ice product may become inferior to that of the KHL.

Now, I'm not pressing the panic button yet, as there is many "ifs" there.  But its an issue the NHL should be concerned about.

So there begins the topic of European expansion.  The deal is, there has to be enough teams in Europe, so the teams don't have to play all (or even most) of their games in North America.  And the system has to be fair to the North American teams so they don't have to travel as much.

So here's my take on it.  Have 10 European teams, and assume 30 NHL teams.  We can divide this up into 4 divisions; 3 from NA and 1 European.

West Division: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Minnesota, Winnipeg, San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Phoenix, Colorado

Central Division: Dallas, St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Columbus, Nashville, Carolina, Washington, Tampa Bay, Florida

East Division: Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Boston, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, New Jersey

Europe Division: <10 European teams>

Now, with all of these extra teams, a red flag would go up on the extra amount of games being played a year.  But if we have a rotating schedule of teams playing outside their division, travel can be equal in the long run, and games can be minimized.

For example:

Year One:

West teams play 4 games against own division opponents (36 games)

play 1 road game against Central division opponents (10 games)

play 1 home game against East division opponents (10 games)

play home-and-away against Europe division opponents (20 games)

= 76 games 

Central teams play 4 games against own division opponents (36 games)

play 1 road game against Europe division opponents (10 games)

play 1 home game against West division opponents (10 games)

play home-and-away against East division opponents (20 games)

= 76 games

East teams play 4 games against own division opponents (36 games)

play 1 road game against West division opponents (10 games)

play 1 home game against Europe division opponents (10 games)

play home-and-away against Central division opponents (20 games)

= 76 games

Europe teams play 4 games against own division opponents (36 games)

play 1 road game against East division opponents (10 games)

play 1 home game against Central division opponents (10 games)

play home-and-away against West division opponents (20 games)

= 76 games

And the teams can rotate the divisions they play against each year.  

In this format, every team in the league has a chance to play every other team at least once every year, and this will help exposure to the NHL game in Europe.  The total amount of games is less than a full season now, which is something the NHL has been trying to do for a while (and as seen by the lockout, is a good idea).  North American teams will play no more than 10 games in Europe per season (excluding playoffs), while European teams will play 20 of their 76 games in North America.

If the clubs have solid financial backing from the get go, those aren't terrible numbers.  I think this is a fully plausible idea.

Playoffs will be an interesting scenario.  We tend to keep with the 7-game series in hockey here in North America, while Europe likes to go with groups and knock-out games, like in soccer.  So we might be able to have both, while promoting the game further in Europe.

Playoffs:

Round 1:

The top 4 teams in each division make the playoffs.  1st in the West plays 4th from the West, 2nd in the West plays 3rd in the West.  This is continued for all divisions.

Round 2:

Naturally, the 2 winners in each division will play for the division championship, leaving 1 team per division remaining.

Round 3:

This is where is gets interesting.  It's not fair to do "conference" finals, since one North American team and the European team would have a ton of travel to do.  

So how about something new, something used in European championships.  The 4 division champions will meet in one location (either predetermined, or the location of the European champion for the sake of promotion), and play a round-robin format to decide who makes it to the Stanley Cup Finals.  

There are tons of ways this could work, either the top 2 after 3 games each make it to the final, or 1st place meets the winner of a one-game knockout between 2nd and 3rd (Memorial Cup style), or however it would work the best.  This insures that less playoff games are played, but the format is changed to something more European, and all of the top teams have to go through each other to get to the finals, something I think the playoffs are missing as of now.

The only two weaknesses of this are, a) that's a full round of hockey that 3 playoff teams wont get ticket revenue for.  This sounds minor, but big money teams might have a problem with that lost revenue.  And b), the two teams left in the final could be very far apart for the finals.  This is commonly a problem anyway, since a western team always plays an eastern team for the Cup, so this isn't exactly a dramatic downfall.  Still, an L.A.-Stockholm final would be a pain.  

As far as TV revenue goes, there are usually between 8-14 games in the conference final round.  With this format, there will be 6-7 (unless a double round-robin is used, where it would be 12-13), so although there could be less games, its not really too bad.  And again, you'll get to see all 4 champions play one another, which keeps it exciting (why the Memorial Cup does so well).

Round 4: Stanley Cup Finals

This can go back to the 7-game series, with one minor switch:  If it so happens that a European team is in the Final, the order of games will go from 2-2-1-1-1 to 2-3-2.  This is done in basketball to reduce travel, and is a great idea.  Cities still get the chance to hoist the cup twice in their own building.

So when thinking about this concept, I think it is an absolutely plausible idea, if enough European teams with capital are on board to support it.  Travel will be more of a burden, but shared, and not as bad as if a few European teams played in a North American division.  This will give a chance for the NHL to grow, and compete with the ever-growing KHL.  I'd love your comments on this, as it is a very out there idea.

Thoughts on NHL Division Alignment

Hey gang, actually going to try to get 2 days in a row for a post this time. :P

Anyways, before I go on my rant, here's another concept I drew today.  It's for the Cincinnati Stingers from the old WHA days.  Not sure why I decided to do this one, but I just liked the logo and thought I'd have some fun with it.  Thoughts?

Anyways, back to today's topic.  I wasn't sure on what to write about today, but yesterday during my predictions post, I was intrigued by all of the new divisional match-ups, and I thought maybe my thoughts on the new alignment.  Of course this was a controversial subject to begin with, so hopefully this will generate some discussion even after it's said and done.

Here, of course, is the division map that was agreed upon by the NHL.  The biggest difference is that the league will be reduced to 4 divisions instead of 6.  Right there is a huge problem, 30 teams doesn't divide into 4 well.  There spewed up the argument of unfair playoff chances between divisions.  The NHL implemented a "wildcard" rule to somewhat counter that, but it's still a bit awkward to have 2 divisions with 7 teams, and 2 divisions with 8 teams.

I would argue that the only sure way to combat this is expansion or contraction of the league.  I like the thought of expansion, the league is par enough throughout that the talent can still spread evenly around 2 more teams, and would probably help keep the salary cap down in the long run.  However, contracting the league by 2 teams isn't a terrible idea either, as there are several teams that aren't exactly helping the league's financial books.

But either way, we had to divide up the divisions somehow for now, and this is what we got.  After all of the bickering between some of the midwest teams, I personally like most aspects of this setup.  Teams wont have to travel past more than 1 timezone for most of their games, and can stay in their own for most of their divisional games.  This helps teams like Colorado, Dallas, and Winnipeg tremendously.

The biggest quirk on the divisional map to me is the Northwest + Florida division.  The other 6 teams surely fit together in the same division, and while we lose the Chicago-Detroit rivalry, Detroit renews 3 of it's Original 6 rivalries, and is now in the Eastern Conference like it wanted.  The Florida teams are a bit awkward, but it wasn't accidental why they're there.  They can play many road games back to back with the closeness of the cities up north, plus many Floridans watching hockey are retirees from Canada watching their old favourite teams, plus traditionally Toronto, Montreal, Boston and Detroit are good draws for road teams, and help boost the attendance.  Its not a well kept secret that these teams (mostly Florida) need help financially, so this was an easy fix.  Plus it would be extremely hard breaking the Atlantic division by more than one team.

Geographically, it could make sense to put Columbus and Pittsburgh in the Northeast and put the Florida teams in the Atlantic, but separating the two Pennsylvania teams would be disastrous for the league.  The Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Flyers, and Capitals are too close together to separate, and since you can't split up Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, the Penguins would have to stay too.  That really only leaves Carolina and Columbus to move. Carolina would much prefer to stay in the Atlantic, even though they are closer to the Florida teams, the shorter travel overall and the good draws from every other team in the division would surely help them more.  That leaves only Columbus.  Theoretically, one could put Columbus in with Detroit in the Northeast, and put Boston in the Atlantic.  Columbus would have to travel further, but would keep rival Detroit in the division, as well as constantly getting teams like Toronto and Montreal in your building, which would be a huge profit boost.  Geographically this could make sense for Boston too, they would get out of having to travel to Florida for division games, wouldn't have to cross the border for 3 divisional teams, and would have slightly less travel if they were in the Atlantic, but keeping rivals like Toronto and Montreal in your division is good for the Bruins, and on-ice they would have a better chance of being a playoff team in that division than if they defected to the Atlantic.  If there would be one change to the map, it would be switching Columbus and Boston, but that's a toss-up and I'm sure the traditionalists would prefer keeping Boston in the Northeast.

I'm sure the happiest teams here are the ones in the Midwest division. Winnipeg is a bothersome travel destination for any team, but they belong with Minnesota, who in turn would much rather play Chicago and St. Louis than Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton.  Dallas is happy because they don't have to play all of their divisional road games on the west coast (or Arizona), and they can stay mostly in their own time zone.  Colorado probably would have preferred to stay in the Pacific division, as it would be slightly less travel, but there would be no clear way to do that, without a huge shakeup or even more geographical mismatching, so its best that Colorado stays there. Nashville could have possibly snuck into the East conference with a little bit of creative shuffling, but its best that they stick with the central core of Chicago and St. Louis, both who don't have ridiculous travel to worry about for the most part.

There's not much to talk about for the Pacific, because that is really the only way to line up the teams, unless the teams were arranged North to South, which would be dreadful.  This also leaves room for some expansion (wink wink) to Seattle, Portland, Las Vegas, San Antonio, or anywhere on the western side of the continent.  Not saying there will be, but for the better of the league, I hope it happens.

Expansion will probably be my next topic of discussion ;)

But final word, the division alignment finally agreed upon is pretty much the best available option at the moment, especially since Phoenix is staying put.  I could move Columbus and Boston, but the rivalries will trump out geography this time.  The only thing I don't like is the uneven-ness of the divisions, something hopefully fixed by expansion sometime soon.  But overall it has my seal of approval, not like it needed mine...

Early Predictions, and a Buffalo Concept

Hey gang, two little bits of information before I go to todays post:

1) Thank you to everyone who helped vote for me in the HJC Open.  Unfortunately, it was not enough as I only got 12% of the vote (2nd out of 3), and lost to an amazingly talented Matt McElroy.  Good luck to him in the next round.

2)  I made a new concept design and cleaned up a little on my concepts page.  This will also be found on there, but I'll put it on here as well, just for kicks.

And now onto today's topic.  There's been quite a few moves, deals, and shockers so far this summer, and we're barely even close to the start of the season.  But I've been doing some thinking as to where everyone is going to be next year, from all the moves made so far.  So taking into consideration the new divisions next year, I figured no better time like the present to make a couple of predictions.

WEST CONFERENCE

The CANA-FORNIA-CATION Division (OK, the name needs work)

1. Los Angeles Kings

2. Vancouver Canucks

3. San Jose Sharks

4. Edmonton Oilers

5. Anaheim Ducks

6. Phoenix Coyotes

7. Calgary Flames

Hurts me to say Calgary is going to end up last, but they have barely anyone left there, and with huge holes in scoring and goaltending, its going to be tough this year.  Edmonton will do better, and will pass the Ducks who I feel overachieved last year.  Vancouver will be good yet again, but I feel Los Angeles has the best chance to top this division next year.

The TEAMS THAT ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WINNIPEG THAN FLORIDA Division

1.  Chicago Blackhawks

2.  St. Louis Blues

3.  Colorado Avalanche

4.  Minnesota Wild

5.  Dallas Stars

6.  Nashville Predators

7.  Winnipeg Jets

Unfortunately, Winnipeg doesn't have enough pieces of the puzzle to have a contending team yet.  But, I would say that this is going to be the tightest division in the league.  Colorado and Minnesota are going to be very solid teams vying for contention, and Chicago will continue to dominate.

The CANADIANS, ALMOST CANADIANS, AND CANADIAN RETIREES Division

1.  Detroit Red Wings

2.  Toronto Maple Leafs

3. Montreal Canadiens

4. Boston Bruins

5. Ottawa Senators

6. Buffalo Sabres

7.  Tampa Bay Lightning

8.  Florida Panthers

No love for the Florida teams here.  They don't have the depth to compete with anyone besides themselves.  Buffalo is still struggling to find an identity.  Ottawa is a big question mark for me, if their young guys can contribute to the core of the team, Ryan can be the star that everyone thinks he is, and Spezza leads this team well, they might do better than 5th.  Boston took a hit because of the players they've lost.  Montreal and Toronto really look like playoff ready teams, but I think this is going to be Detroit's year.

The TEAMS THAT ARE ALL IN OR VERY CLOSE TO NYC, EXCEPT CAROLINA Division

Again, division names need work :P hopefully going back to the old division names before the last alignment.

1.  Pittsburgh Penguins

2.  Philadelphia Flyers

3.  New York Rangers

4.  New York Islanders

5.  New Jersey Devils

6.  Carolina Hurricanes

7.  Washington Capitals

8.  Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus is on the up, but I don't think they'll get much of a shot in this division, unless Bobrovski plays out of his mind.  Washington and Carolina have solid teams, but need some work before they'll be competitive in this division.  The Staals and Ovie can't do it alone.  New Jersey may have an awful year, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now, since they always find a way to compete.  The Islanders will be a playoff team, but still not elite.  The Rangers will take great strides with AV I think, and Philly will take a huge leap with Lecavlier and Emery in the fold.  Just wish they didn't get rid of Briere... oh well.  Still, this division belongs to the Penguins, assuming Fleury can get back to his starting role.

That's what I think for now anyways, lots of time for that to change though.  Interesting to see how teams stack up in new divisions.  If you have any predictions of your own, or want to elaborate on mine, please leave a comment.  Have a good night everyone.