I like that title... seems really poetic in a way.
Anyways, as I alluded to earlier, today's post is going to be about potential expansion for the NHL. Why would the NHL expand? Because they like having 4 divisions, and 30 teams doesn't fit into 4 divisions all too well. Plus, the parity of the NHL is higher than it ever has been, and there is enough talent to spread around into 2 more teams. This would also help the NHL keep it's salary cap down.
So thats why expansion would work, but where would it work? Here's a list of places that could see expansion, and my odds (no real statistic, just my guess) that there will be an NHL team there someday.
First, some old NHL cities:
Atlanta has had 2 chances to keep an NHL team there, and managed just around a decade each time. Both times, fan support was hard to come by, and I don't see how that would change a 3rd time around. Still, its a large city with lots of travellers going through it on a daily basis, and a strong sports city in general. It deserves at least a 25%.
Cleveland is another larger city that population-wise could support a hockey team. They had a very short NHL stint, marred by a terrible arena deal and bad finances. But their attendance wasn't bad, and there was a strong interest in the team at the time, before they merged with Minnesota. Still, it's hard seeing a team move into Cleveland before anywhere else. 15%
Hartford was a team that unfortunately couldn't survive in the high budget league era of the 90's, and they had troubles with attendance, mostly because ownership was bad and only gave out single game tickets or full season tickets, and not the popular 6 or 20 game packs that fans would have liked. They also had bad corporate sponsorship and couldn't finalize an arena deal for a larger centre. I think many traditionalists would love a team back there, and it wouldn't do as bad as some of the existing teams, but it would be a hard sell. 30%
Kansas City lasted 2 years in the league, and came in with high hopes. But poor ownership, and a bad talent poor lost fan interest quickly, and left town for Colorado. Today, there isn't much to be said about hockey in Kansas City, except the Penguins almost landed there a decade ago. But even then, and the exhibition games after that hosted by their NHL ready facility, shown that fan interest would be a huge problem there. 10%
Quebec City probably has the best odds of a former NHL city to hold a team again. Financially, they weren't too much worse off than most of the other Canadian teams during the 90's, but they did struggle and found ownership with deep pockets in Denver. They definitely have the fan support, all they would need is a new arena, and some corporate backing and Quebec could become another hit Canadian market. 75%
And now some other cities:
Hamilton / GTA has roughly the same chance of getting another team. Toronto has the fan support to give to 2 teams, or a team from Hamilton, but the owners in Toronto, Buffalo, and Detroit probably have other ideas. Still, I have a tough time seeing another team end up in southern Ontario, but the money and fans is surely there. 40%
Saskatoon has an interesting footnote to it: it has been speculated that the Calgary Flames will play in Saskatoon if the repairs to the Saddledome are not complete by the start of season. I have no official word that this is true or not, but something interesting to think about. Saskatoon's arena is just slightly bigger than Winnipeg's, which is easily the smallest in the league (besides the Islander's, but they're moving to Brooklyn, as they should). Any exhibition game played there has been maxed out, and if they could get that fan support for a full season, it's definitely a viable option. But it's a really small city for a pro sports team, so it would really be up to the fans and corporate support to keep a team there afloat. If Winnipeg can survive 5 years in the league and stay strong, than I think you'll see Saskatoon's name come up more often. 45%
Halifax / Atlantic Canada would be a very intriguing place for a hockey team. There are no pro sports teams in the area, and it's a very passionate fan base in all levels of sport there. However, you would need support from all of the major cities in the area to make it work, and in some cases that would mean travelling a few hours to watch a home game. Plus there are no suitable arenas in the area to even temporarily hold a team. I love the idea, and it's still better than how Phoenix is doing, but an investor wouldn't invest hockey here, yet. 15%
Seattle probably has the best chance of any city to land a hockey team. It's a high-captial city with lots of investors, it has an insane fan-base in football and soccer, and it's close enough to Canada to attract some Canadian fans. Their arena now is undesirable but still plausible for pro hockey, and they have plans to build new. I would love another Canadian team in first, but I think Seattle would be too good of an investment to pass up. Plus the NHL division alignment already lined this up perfectly. 80%
Houston has a few things going for it to be an underdog pick to put an expansion team in. It's the largest city to not currently own an NHL team, it has a rich history with the Houston Aeros, it has 2 NHL ready arenas, and a 3rd that is decommissioned for sports, but could be renovated to fix that if the investment is right. A group tried to by the Oilers in 1998 to bring them to Houston, but the bid was matched by an Edmonton group. Interest in hockey hasn't been strong there as of late, but I think they have just as good of a chance as some of the other southern NHL teams of making it, which is about half of them. 50%
And finally, Las Vegas has always been a city that I liked to think could hold a pro hockey team. It has no other sports teams there, and it has sold out hockey exhibitions in the past. It would be a really hard sell, as constant fan support would be tough to find there, but I actually have a little bit of hope that this city could host an NHL team and be moderately successful (at least, not in the red as much as some other NHL teams). Overall, I'd have to give this a modest 20%.
Thats all I got for now, if you have any other cities to add, or want to dispute some of my percentages (which, again, are just gues-stimations on my part), feel free to comment below. I probably wont post anything for the next day or two as I have some family gatherings to take care of, but hopefully I can get back to the blog soon after the weekend. Goodnight everyone.
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